Concrete Playground's Useful Guide to the 2016 Oscar Race

The glitz! The glamour! The millionaires patting each other on the back! Yes dear friends, the Academy Awards are getting closer by the day. This year's nominations range from big, populist blockbusters to itsy bitsy indie films, once again celebrating the very best that Hollywood has to offer. As long as what it has to offer was...y'know...white.

The #OscarsSoWhite problem has become one of a number of talking points in the wake of the recent nominations, along with the dodgy shut-out of critical darling Carol and the hype around Leonardo DiCaprio. He's finally going to win you guys!

While a few of the nominees, including Room and Steve Jobs, are yet to reach our shores, we've otherwise managed to see just about everything in contention. And after running them all through our Oscar predicting super computer, here's how we think Hollywood's night of nights is going to pan out.

BEST PICTURE

The Nominees

The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight.

What Will Win

This is going to be a close one. Although it won't be released in Australia until the end of January, journalism drama Spotlight was thought to be leading the race, until The Revenant swooped in and nabbed the top prize at the Golden Globes. And with the most nominations out of this year's Oscar contenders, we reckon momentum is only going to build. The Revenant by a nose.

What Should Win

Putting aside our national bias, it's pretty obvious that Mad Max: Fury Road should take home the big banana. It's thrilling, inventive and phenomenally made, and was a hit with critics and audiences alike. Not only that, but the film's strong feminist overtones and kickass female characters are exactly the kind of thing that Hollywood needs to reward.

The Snubs

The biggest snub of the bunch is undoubtedly Carol. Todd Haynes' lesbian romance set in 1950s New York has been rightfully adored by critics, and its surprising omission here is seen as a sign by many that Oscar voters still aren't ready to embrace queer stories. So much for liberal Hollywood. It's also disappointing not to see Creed or Straight Outta Compton nominated, as two of the best reviewed and most popular films of the year about people of colour. Hell, even a Star Wars nom would have been something.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Nominees

Lenny Abrahamson (Room), Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight), Adam McKay (The Big Short), George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road).

Who Will Win

This race will likely come down to George Miller for Mad Max and Alejandro G. Inarritu for The Revenant. Both men made ambitious, visually spectacular films, something the Academy increasingly tends to reward. The fact that Inarritu won last year for Birdman might make some voters want to look elsewhere, but we're still tipping him to go back-to-back.

Who Should Win

George Miller. He's a veteran of the industry, and unlike Inarritu, there's more to his movie that just style for the sake of style. Here's hoping George can become the first Australian ever to win Best Director. Celebratory Mad Max screening at our place if he does!

The Snubs

Most people assumed Ridley Scott would get a nomination for his rock solid work on The Martian. Todd Haynes for Carol is likewise a very disappointing omission, as is Ryan Coogler for Creed. The fact that the category is entirely male is more a condemnation of the wider film industry than it is of Oscar voters... although it's certainly depressing none the less.

BEST ACTRESS

The Nominees

Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room), Jennifer Lawrence (Joy), Charlotte Rampling (45 Years), Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn).

Who Will Win

While Cate Blanchett seemed like an early favourite for her sublime work in Carol, the scales appear to be tipping in favour of Brie Larson in Room. She's coming fresh off a win at the Golden Globes, and the film obviously resonated with Academy voters given its unexpected nomination for Best Director as well as Best Picture.

Who Should Win

The good thing about this category is that there really is no bad option. For our money Blanchett is still the strongest contender, but we'd be just as happy seeing it go to any one of them.

The Snubs

There's a strong argument that both Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara should be here, for their work in The Danish Girl and Carol, but their respective studios successfully campaigned to have them nominated for Best Supporting Actress instead. And let's face it, it just wouldn't be the Oscars without a little bit of category fraud.

BEST ACTOR

The Nominees

Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Matt Damon (The Martian), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl).

Who Will Win

Leonardo DiCaprio, although it would be kind of funny if he didn't. His turn in The Revenant is far from his best work, but it's exactly the kind of big, committed performance that the Academy tends to favour. Subtlety be damned! Honestly, the field is pretty weak this year. Michael Fassbender is reportedly great in Steve Jobs, but the buzz around the film is basically non-existent.

Who Should Win

Honestly, anyone aside from Eddie Redmayne for his insipid work in the regressive, cliché-riddled transgender weepie The Danish Girl. How anyone thinks that's a good performance is just totally beyond us. Just give it to Leo. Think of how happy it'll make him.

The Snubs

Steve Jobs isn't out in Australia until February, but it's hard to imagine Fassbender gives a better performance as the Apple co-founder than he does as Macbeth in Justin Kurzel's phenomenal Shakespeare adaptation. Michael B. Jordan is terrific in Creed, and there's been a lot of good said about Will Smith in the NFL medical drama Concussion as well.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Nominees

Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Rooney Mara (Carol), Rachel McAdams (Spotlight), Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs).

Who Will Win

Putting aside the dodgy Oscar politics that sees Mara and Vikander nominated in the wrong category, we suspect this award will go to the actress from Carol. That said, it's entirely conceivable that Vikander or Winslet could swoop in for the steal.

Who Should Win

Rooney Mara is wonderful in Carol, and a very deserving recipient. If you're looking for something a little bolder, we'd go with Jennifer Jason Leigh, who steals The Hateful Eight from her seven male co-stars.

The Snubs

It was always a long shot, but we'd have been thrilled to see transgender actress Mya Taylor score a nomination for her remarkable turn in Sean Baker's Tangerine. The other disappointing omission is Kristen Stewart. You may scoff, but her work in Clouds of Sils Maria is a total revelation.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Nominees

Christian Bale (The Big Short), Tom Hardy (The Revenant), Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), Sylvester Stallone (Creed).

Who Will Win

Unless The Revenant makes a clean sweep and thus the award goes to Tom Hardy, we expect to see this trophy in the hands of Sylvester Stallone. Everybody in Hollywood loves him, and he's genuinely terrific in Creed. Besides, his acceptance speech at the Golden Globes was absolutely adorable. Who wouldn't want to see more of that?

Who Should Win

Seriously, did you see that acceptance speech!?

The Snubs

The most notable absence is Idris Elba, who was widely expected to be nominated for his chilling turn in Netflix's Beasts of No Nation. Are you noticing a theme here? It's also a little surprising that Michael Keaton missed out for his work in Spotlight, and we'd have loved to see Benicio Del Toro, for Sicario, and Michael Shannon, for 99 Homes, make the cut as well.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Nominees

Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Spotlight, Straight Outta Compton.

What Will Win

Spotlight seems like an easy pick here. The story, about a newspaper investigation into sexual abuse in the Catholic Church, is just the right mix of worthy and compelling, plus the screenplay categories are often the place where the Academy gives its consolation prize to the film that missed out on Best Picture.

What Should Win

As much as we liked Spotlight, for us this award deserves to go to the folks behind Inside Out. Once again, Pixar have demonstrated that children's films don't need to talk down to their intended audience, and that it's possible to craft jokes that both kids and adults will enjoy. Inside Out is one of the funniest films of the year, while at the same time dealing with concepts of grief and loss with a level of maturity that puts most grownup movies to shame. We also really liked Ex Machina, but this should go to Pixar, not close.

The Snubs

Although it's divided critics and may be too controversial for some, Quentin Tarantino's savage, racially-charged western The Hateful Eight deserved to at least get a nomination. We'd have loved to see absurdist black comedy The Lobster get some attention too, but honestly that was never particularly likely.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Nominees

The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, Room.

What Will Win

Adam McKay's financial crisis comedy The Big Short is the frontrunner in this category. It's smart, funny and has just the right amount of righteous indignation, which Oscar voters tend to love. The Martian and Room also seem like reasonable possibilities.

What Should Win

The more we think about it, the more we like The Martian in this category. It's funny, it's thrilling, it's wonderfully optimistic, and in an age of increasing anti-intellectualism, it actually makes science seem cool.

The Snubs

Aaron Sorkin seemed like a lock for his work on Steve Jobs, but as mentioned above the movie just didn't seem to resonate with viewers. We'll also give one final plug to Macbeth, for stripping Shakespeare down to its raw, grim essentials.

The winners of the 88th Academy Awards will be revealed on February 28.