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Inflation Means The Price of Everything Is Going Up — Except Your Morning Coffee

Inflation is back on the rise, but at least you can expect coffee prices to stop increasing in 2026.
Hudson Brown
October 29, 2025

Overview

Armchair economists, let alone real ones, received something of a nasty surprise today, as the RBA announced inflation figures climbed in the September quarter, with consumer prices rising at an annual pace of 3.2 percent.

Considering the June quarter was measured at 2.1 percent, it's safe to say that anyone holding out for another interest rate cut (or cheaper groceries) in the near future has had their hopes dashed.

Yet one piece of positive news headed our way could be the price of coffee. While it has felt like the cost has gone up and up over the last year or two, procurement experts at Proxima are predicting that coffee prices will stabilise, or even fall, in 2026.

According to Proxima, arabica coffee futures have jumped 55 percent year-on-year. At the same time, the average caffeine hit in Australia has increased 37 percent since pre-pandemic lows of $5.50. Yet the "perfect storm of supply chain disruptions" is expected to ease soon.

With global coffee stocks falling to 20-year lows, soaring coffee prices were partly caused by extreme weather events that slashed exports from Brazil and Vietnam by 30 percent. As Australia imports 90 percent of its beans, it's no surprise the cost at your local cafe took off.

Although cafes still face major hurdles — rising rents, wages, operational costs and more — at least getting the beans in the grinder might be a little more affordable. Sure, it won't fix the cost-of-living crisis, but ordering a flat white that won't break the bank is a small win worth celebrating.

Looking for a cheap meal? Check out the Ten Best Places to Dine Out Under $20 Right Now.

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