Overview
New York, Berlin … might Sydney soon be on the list of cultural capitals? If all we do is work and play Facebook, will we explode? Marcus Costello finds out by chatting with a man from the future who happens to be in Australia this week for The Future Laboratory's annual trend briefing.
Martin Raymond is the company's co-founder and current strategy and insight director, and he had much to share with us on how trend forecasting works, what shopping centres might look like in the next decade, why you shouldn't make that sea change, and, yes, why Sydney might culturally overtake Melbourne yet.
This is certainly a bright and early start for me, but you've just got off a plane, how's it for you?
I've just come from Burma, which was part work part play. So I'm in good form.
Ah, you're an early adopter of 'The New Sublimity' (The Future Laboratory's term for the impending "digital switch-off, back-to-basics, retreat to nature for emotional reboot" among under 25s). Can you explain the concept to me?
[laughs] Sure. In happening cities where stress levels and stimulation are high, the next crop to enter the workforce will start building a buffer between work and free time. They'll realise that work-life balance doesn't work when you can work from anywhere and be contactable 24/7. The nomadic lifestyle that the baby boomers considered romantic when they were in their 20s is actually a practical reality for the upcoming generation thanks to remote computing and other technologies. Kerouac's On the Road was recently made into a film and young progressives are moving to places like Berlin where the bohemian lifestyle is seen as a legitimate way of living.
So that's the modus operandi of The Future Laboratory: track what culture is being consumed and make predictions. I'm intrigued because a laboratory suggests a place that makes things. Do you think there's an element of causation in trend forecasting — build it and they will come, sort of thing? Can you really spot things before they happen or is it that you see what's bubbling beneath the surface and foresee its rise?
Good question. Our methodology is structured in three branches: Intuition, Observation, and Interrogation. It's the same principle you apply to ethnographic or sociological field studies. With these lines of research you can foresee the rise of organic food a decade before it happens, for example. We also have well-honed observation skills and a solid understanding of mimetics, so it's more than blind predictions. Basically, we identify a pattern then look for the anomalies. These anomalies signal the early adopters and innovators. And there are some cities that better allow for these people to thrive, like Seattle, Seoul, Buenos Aires, Berlin. A place like Munich, on the other hand, is not one of those places.
[laughs] My sister is part of a very interesting internet start-up in a town just outside Munich where rent is cheap and good skiing is close-by. Perhaps she's the exception to the rule — or maybe she's an early adopter of The New Sublimity — but it makes me think that the big cultural capitals like Berlin/NYC are nearing saturation with creative professionals, making it prohibitively expensive and competitive. Cities like Detroit, I would have thought, are the ones to watch.
Good point. The pendulum does swing, and yes, Detroit has the telltale signs, if you know how to spot them,of a city on the rise: empty warehouses for cheap live-in studios, wide open spaces, young people flocking there. It's the same set of factors that gave rise to East London and so many other cities. The next wave of residents to arrive are those who superficially associate with the core activities but who aren't part of it. They're graphic designers, not artists. They'll buy-in once the aesthetic can be commodified.
Hipsters, in a word. NYC is eternally cool but can you tell me about other happening — or about to happen — cultural capitals?
I would argue that over the next five years Melbourne will become less of a talking point and Sydney will have its time in the sun. Then again, Sydney will rise because its mimicking Melbourne's laneway culture. Los Angles is on the way up. Vienna is a tired, bourgeois, racist part of Austria, but that makes it rife for a shake-up. It's full of old people about to die, which leaves cheap apartments for students. On the other hand, there's Switzerland, where everything is, well, nice. But I say to people, "Why live in a place where there's nothing to annoy you, to challenge you?" Switzerland will never become fashionable. Canada, likewise, will never become fashionable.
Isn't the New Sublimity all about "secular spiritualism as consumers take to the land, sea, beaches and mountains in search of meaning, mindfulness, inattentive learning and an emotional reboot"? Switzerland and Canada both abound in natural wonder.
[laughs] Nature doesn't have much to do with cultural revolution. People still want to be in cities, but they'll create mental space to get away, or reinterpret the built environment to make spaces for mindfulness. There's a bunch of guys in NY who have set-up bivouacs on rooftops so people can sleep out and experience the sounds, the smells, the stars of the city. In England it's really trendy to spend time away in monasteries — it's different, it's detached, it's cheap. People don't want a full-blown sea-change because cities are good and, let's be honest, interesting people love the concrete jungle, they're not afraid of it. As soon as you exit the city, you exit life. People who live in the countryside tend to be dull; and worse, they believe that they're living the right way. Well, they're not. They're living their way.
As a company who consults to retailers, should retailers be concerned that mindfulness is about to wash over their consumers?
One of our clients in the UK, Selfridges, has just produced a festival called No Noise which embraced the concept of the New Sublimity. They created rooms within the department store where shoppers could go to relax.
So they can revitalise for more shopping.
They could do that. But they also had night walks, and walks with philosophers and all kinds of things. They even persuaded brands to remove logos and graphics from their products.
Of course, this actually reinforces brand identity because consumers have to consider product design.
Yes, you could say it's a cynical exercise in retail marketing, but it's no more cynical than religion. If there's a trend that questions the nature of consumption and you can turn a profit from that as a retailer, well, I think that's a good thing. I'd rather consumers shop with a sense of why they're shopping than with no sense at all. Consumers are clever, they know what's online, and this is a really problem for retailers. The customer base is nomadic like a hobo and what attracts the hobo is the bright glittering light on the horizon and retailers are failing to offer that.
Isn't what attracts the hobo a turning away from commercial consumption?
That depends on how you define commercialism. At the moment people are spending their money on experiences: theatre, music, food, conviviality. To me, that's commercial and I'm not inclined to separate commerce and culture. As we continue to shop online we are going to expect more cultural experiences from our stores. Rousseau wrote about 19th-century department stores as places of education and imagination; places where someone could go to see the world brought to them. That's how we think about galleries and museums today and how we might think about department stores tomorrow.
The Future Laboratory 2013 Australian Trend Briefings will be held in Melbourne on Thursday, February 14, and in Sydney on Tuesday, February 19. Go here for more details.