Tropical Cyclone Alfred Is Forecast to Impact Brisbane, Southeast Queensland and Northern New South Wales

Overview

For residents of Brisbane, southeast Queensland and Northern New South Wales, the week commencing Monday, March 3, 2025 is starting with a key piece of  advice: stay safe and dry. The Bureau of Meteorology has advised that Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to impact the area, including potentially making landfall near the Sunshine State capital. Wet, windy and wild weather is expected from Bundaberg down to the Gold Coast and into the Northern Rivers, complete with daily rainfall totals up to 600 millimetres — and authorities are telling residents to prepare now.

As at 4am AEST, Tropical Cyclone Alfred is around 465 kilometres northeast of Brisbane and 410 kilometres east northeast of Maroochydore, but the Category 2 storm is due to head south, then west. First, on Monday it is predicted to keep travelling southeast, away from Queensland's coastline, the Bureau advised in a morning update. Come Tuesday, however, it'll shift, coming back towards the southern Queensland coast.

While updates will keep being issued, the forecast for Brisbane and the Gold Coast for Thursday, March 6 already notes "cyclone possible" on the BOM website. The Bureau presently notes that "heavy to locally intense rainfall is forecast for southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales from Wednesday as Alfred approaches the coast" — and that the regions should all be on flood watch.

"We are seeing sustained winds near the centre of the cyclone of 95 kilometres an hour and wind gusts to 130 kilometres an hour," Senior Meteorologist Jonathan How also advised. "It is moving in a southeasterly direction at around 13 kilometres an hour, sort of about a running pace, moving down towards the southeast."

On Sunday, March 2, Brisbane City Council issued a weather alert communicating that Alfred "will potentially produce damaging or destructive wind gusts and isolated heavy rainfall which may cause flash flooding, from late Wednesday through until the weekend", and urged Brisbanites to "make all necessary preparations for possible severe weather impacts". On the list: clearing yards and gutters, securing loose items outside and trimming tree branches. The BCC website has a guide for being prepared for an emergency that's worth bookmarking.

Also on Sunday, Queensland Premier David Crisafulli held a press conference about the storm, revealing that waves in some parts of the state — in the Wide Bay area — were already hitting 14 metres due to the cyclone. He also said that an official Tropical Cyclone warning was likely in the coming days.

It has been 35 years since Cyclone Nancy threatened Brisbane. Back in 2019, Cyclone Oma also sat off the coast. While the River City mightn't seem like cyclone territory, the 1893 and 1974 floods were the result of cyclonic weather systems — and the latter was caused by a slow-moving cyclone.

The Bureau's Brissie forecasts predict possible showers on Monday, a shower or two on Tuesday, wind and showers on Wednesday, all with temperature maximums of 31, 30 and 28 — and with winds up to 90 kilometres an hour on Wednesday. Thursday's prediction is currently "very high chance of rain" plus "the chance of a thunderstorm" and "destructive wind gusts exceeding 130 kilometres an hour possible depending on movement and development of Tropical Cyclone Alfred". From there, wind and heavy rain is expected on Friday, then showers across the weekend.

Your plans for the week obviously might change due to the weather situation. Already, the AFL has flagged that it's keeping an eye out given that the first game of the 2025 season, with premiers Brisbane facing Geelong, is scheduled to take place at the Gabba on Thursday night.

The Bureau of Meteorology will continue to update its warnings and maps regularly — visit its website for further details and udpates.